Markets Brace for PCE Data as Crypto Volatility Remains Subdued
Financial markets hovered in cautious equilibrium Thursday night, with traders awaiting Friday's core PCE inflation reading - the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge. The 2.9% anticipated annual increase WOULD extend the 55-month streak above central bank targets, yet Bitcoin's volatility metrics suggest muted expectations for dramatic moves.
Derivatives pricing implies an 87% probability of December rate cuts regardless of Friday's data. Treasury yields appear poised to break below 4% should inflation surprise to the downside, potentially catalyzing Bitcoin's escape from its $92K-$94K consolidation pattern.
Equity futures mirrored the waiting game - Nasdaq e-minis crept 0.1% higher while S&P and Dow contracts flatlined. The crypto market's calm persists with BTC's implied volatility index anchoring at 36%, forecasting sub-2% daily price swings.
